The role of nuclear power in Europe - present and future

In the EU, nuclear power plays an important role in meeting electricity demand, with nuclear power plants generating 25% of all electricity in 2021. Although France has traditionally dominated the European nuclear sector and accounts for almost half of its output, eight other Member States (Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden) have more than 30% share of nuclear generation in their electricity generation mix.

The use of nuclear power plants in Europe has generally declined in recent years, especially after the Fukushima disaster in 2011. According to Eurostat, nuclear power generation in the EU decreased by 20% between 2006 and 2021, although the situation varies from country to country. Thus, the debate on nuclear energy and its place in the EU's future economic and environmental policies remains open. Some states are currently decommissioning and closing nuclear capacity, while others are planning to commission new units despite the EU's 2050 climate strategy. This strategy, published in 2018, envisages reducing the share of nuclear energy in the European energy mix from 26% to 12-15%. Let's take a closer look at the state of nuclear power in Europe and try to identify the main prospects for this controversial energy source.

Leaders of nuclear power in Europe

In the EU, France traditionally accounts for the largest volume of nuclear energy production. In 2021, it will be 99 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe), representing more than half of all European production. France accounts for 56 of the 126 nuclear reactors in Europe. In second place are Spain and Belgium with 7 reactors, followed by Sweden with 6 operating reactors. It should be noted that Germany, as part of its nuclear phase-out policy, has only 3 operating reactors left in January 2022, compared to 6 in 2018, making it the second largest nuclear power producing state even in the not too distant past.

In total, almost half of the European Union member states use this type of energy, although some of them produce it in very small quantities. Conversely, 14 other member States have no nuclear production capacity at all, regardless of the scale of their energy consumption. For example, populous countries such as Italy and Poland do not produce nuclear energy at all and do not have nuclear reactors on their territory. Nevertheless, Poland plans to begin construction of a 6-unit nuclear power plant in 2026, with scheduled commissioning in 2040. In Italy, by contrast, the use of civil nuclear power is prohibited by law.

Nuclear power and the Green Pact

In December 2019, the European Commission presented its plan to implement the Green Pact, including a proposal to invest 1 trillion euro(through the Invest EU and Just Transition funds) in developing the clean economy and fighting climate change. European officials emphasized that the Pact is both a growth strategy and a climate change strategy covering all sectors, including energy. The Next Generation mechanism provides additional political and financial support for Green Deal objectives.

However, even before the Green Pact proposal, the Commission had already adopted three energy and climate targets for 2030:

1. Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% compared to 1990 levels;
2. The share of renewable energy in the energy mix should be at least 32%;
3. Improving overall energy efficiency by at least 32.5%.

Strengthening the greenhouse gas emissions target to 50-55% is also envisaged by the Commission, which has launched a public consultation process on the EU's 2030 climate ambitions.

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However, the place of nuclear power in the EU's overall approach to climate and sustainability has come into question. This taxonomy includes five main areas:

• Climate change mitigation and adaptation;
• Sustainable use and protection of water and marine resources;
• Transition to a circular economy;
• Pollution prevention and control;
• Protection and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystems.

Despite recognizing the role that nuclear power can play in reducing emissions, there has been considerable debate among governments about how nuclear power should be considered in this classification. This debate has highlighted differences in approaches to nuclear power between EU countries, especially between France and Germany.

Prospects for nuclear power in Europe

Despite the challenges posed by the completion of new nuclear units in France, Finland and Slovakia, at least six EU countries (Hungary, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Finland, Poland) are proceeding with plans to build new large nuclear power plants or are considering new investments. Why are these countries willing to assume all the associated risks?

All countries planning new nuclear power plants, except Romania (18% of nuclear power plants) and Poland, received more than 35% of their electricity from nuclear power plants in 2019. All of these countries are also largely dependent on gas imports from Russia, although gas consumption in the power sector is less than 10% in almost all of these countries. For Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Poland, nuclear power is seen not only as a way to avoid increasing dependence on gas imports, but also as an important means of meeting national emissions targets, as each of these countries generates more than 35% of its electricity from coal. Finland is also looking to reduce its coal use from the current 12% by building two new nuclear reactors. The situation is similar in the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, where output has increased by almost 20%. France, on the other hand, has traditionally increased its nuclear power production after a sharp 34.5% drop in 2022 compared to the previous year.

On the other hand, there is a tendency to phase out nuclear power among other countries. For example, Germany shut down its last three operating nuclear reactors on April 15, 2023. Spain, the EU's second largest nuclear power producer, has followed Germany's lead - the country plans to decommission one nuclear reactor in 2027 and completely phase out nuclear power by 2035. The situation is particularly interesting in Hungary, where the parliament recently approved the construction of two new reactors in cooperation with the Russian company Rosatom. This event caused wide resonance and bewilderment in the EU against the background of sanctions imposed against Russia, but the European Commission still approved the contract last May.

Thus, for many European countries, the issue of nuclear energy is once again gaining relevance. While remaining a hotly debated issue, its use can not only significantly increase the efficiency of electricity generation, but also allow a number of countries to refuse imports of energy carriers (e.g., Russian gas), thereby increasing their energy independence. The environmental impact of nuclear power and its environmental friendliness remains controversial, which reveals different approaches to this issue.